Kunal Powdel

With the world’s dynamics shifting towards resource depletion, the transition from fossil fuels to the age of renewable energy has reached its climax. With the high rates of CO₂ emission release and increasing carbon footprint across various developed and developing countries, India undertook the gigantic task of net zero emission by the year 2070, and with now the country’s annual per capita emissions reaching about 1/3 of the global average in 2023 [1], the push for renewables increases along with the global targets and pressure.

In the current FY 25, Renewable Energy’s (RE) operational capacity was 223.6 GWs against 255.01 BUs of energy output, which was minimal against 1331.87 BUs of output from coal-based power plants alone, with an operational capacity of 219.3 GW, lower than that of RE [2]. This paradoxical situation is one of the outcomes of complexity in phasing out the fossil fuels from the subcontinent and the play of different challenges and stakeholders, which we see further.

Financial Crisis of State DISCOMs and Renewables:

One of the reasons for the output disparity discussed earlier could be the lack of integration of grid infrastructure with the RE sources. Today’s grids are designed traditionally for fossil fuel-based electricity; however, despite the push for renewables, the grid infrastructure lacks integration with solar and wind sources, resulting in a loss of energy output. 

Moreover, electricity distribution companies (DISCOMs) in various states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, and Madhya Pradesh, that are coal-dependent are already in deep financial losses [2] [3]. Renewable energy-sourced electricity creates more financial constraints, as the total upgradation of the grid infrastructure and storage facilities is expected to cost more than the savings from cheaper RE-sourced electricity itself, resulting in even more financial burden.

Another issue with DISCOMs for using RE-based electricity is meeting electrical demands, which becomes inconsistent with renewables such as solar and wind, whose output depends on various climatic conditions.

Regional Disparities—The Geography of Renewables Percent Coal:

Despite these technical and financial hiccups, the Indian government announced the target of 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030 at COP26, with 50 percent of the energy requirement to be met by the same [5]. However, as per a press release by PIB in Jan 2025, the total non-fossil fuel capability was 217 GW, which is a bare percent of the target achieved by the halfway deadline [5].

Within renewables, the contribution of solar energy alone amounts to 47% of the total output. Furthermore, solar installations of 18.5 GW in the year 2024, the contribution of three states—Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu—alone accounted for 71%, which is a concerning metric considering the contribution of other states barely amounted to 29%, showcasing a lack of policy implementation except for a few states and regions. A similar pattern was seen in the case of wind energy, where, in a total addition of 3.4 GW of new capacity, 98% of the increased wind contribution was from Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu [5].

Gujarat, for instance, as of March 2024, had the contracted capacity of 32611 MW, within which only 47% was coal-powered electricity, while renewables amounted to 39% of the capacity, with solar and wind leading with 13% and 12%, respectively [6].

In contrast, Bihar’s contracted capacity in 2023 was 9002 MW, of which coal alone constituted 72% of total capacity [7], whereas Jharkhand, which produces a quarter of the nation’s coal, had only a contracted capacity of 3035 MW, of which coal amounted to 63% [8]. Nonetheless, the lack of infrastructure and strict policy implementation for renewable energy is high in the states that are involved heavily in coal extraction, such as Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha, which is an expected response when the major portion of the economy and employment within these states depends on the coal industry.

Political Connections and Economy of Coal:

The coal industry is known to have strong ties with industries such as the steel-iron industry and the cement industry that depend on coal highly for fuel and as a carbon source for manufacturing [9], while the Indian Railways is a key transportation stakeholder for coal transport across different states [10]. This also results in the indirect involvement of various stakeholders such as warehouses, coal vendors, and third-party vendors and sellers of coal, making this transition supposedly affect 2 crores of people overall. Moreover, various private players such as JSW Energy, Adani Enterprises, and Jindal Steel and Power have been known to acquire various mines via auction by the Coal Ministry, which are extensively utilized [11]. 

Adani Enterprises and Jindal Steel and Power come here as one of the key names here as the parent group; Adani Group has alleged financial and political ties with the current Modi government in the center [12], whereas Jindal Steel and Power is chaired by Naveen Jindal, who is affiliated with the current BJP government as an MP in Lok Sabha and also has past associations with Congress from 2004 to 2024, during which he and Jindal Steel and Power were alleged to be involved in the Coalgate scam of 2012 [13]. Another case of political involvement and corruption with coal can be seen in the Bengal coal smuggling case, where coal smuggling occurred in the areas of Eastern Coalfield Limited (ECL) by corrupt officials of ECL and members of Trinamool Congress [14]. These instances pose a threat to shifting from coal to renewables, as not just this results in the backing of coal by political ambitions; however, it also results in cheap prices of coal field allotment, as stated during Coalgate of 2012, leading to low coal prices and unfair disadvantage to renewables.

Furthermore, coal-based regions such as Jharkhand showcase the history of Naxalites and Maoist groups that tend to control the local coal areas as well as political influence in the region [15], creating political complexity. Other states, such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, that demonstrate potential growth in the renewable sector resist the same due to the present usage of vast lands in agriculture, creating problems in land acquisition for solar and wind projects. 

Even coal lobbies such as Mahanadi Coalfields and other subsidiaries of Coal India have resisted the abrupt closure of coal mines despite pressure from the coal ministry and from local affected communities in the hope of either reopening the mines later for mining of untapped reserves or avoiding the handover of land to the local community, resulting in the loss of land. 

Livelihood in Danger: Transition from Coal to Renewables

Moving ahead towards employment, in the coal industry alone, as per a press release by PIB, Coal India, which is the largest stakeholder in the coal industry, is responsible for the employment of 239,000 workers [17], which, along with NLC India, amounts to 364,053, including 128,238 contractual workers, as well as 310,000 pensioners [18]. In such a scenario, switching towards renewable energy along with the closure of these coal mines not only results in unemployment as well as reduced income for the local community, especially scheduled tribes and castes, that rely on the same for livelihood and energy sources, which had been reported in various villages of Bihar and Jharkhand. However, if we account for the dependency of coal in other industries such as steel and railways, warehousing facilities, and third-party vendors and sellers, then this transition can impact about 2 crore of the estimated population [16].

As for the renewable sector, according to IRENA (International Renewable Agency), the employment was 1.02 million in India itself, within which hydropower had employed 453,000 & the solar photovoltaic sector held 318,000 jobs for people off-grid & on-grid cumulatively [19].

However, opportunities in the renewable sector require more extensive technical training, intense capital investment, and a skilled labor force than that required in non-renewable, which majorly requires physical output and unskilled workers for extraction of minerals. Moreover, this employment occurs in regions such as Gujarat and Rajasthan that successfully implemented policies instituted by the central government, already possess a skilled labor force, and where investment in renewable infrastructure was boosted aggressively, resulting in the possible migration of even skilled workers from even coal-dependent regions such as Jharkhand and West Bengal in other states, while the remaining unskilled individuals either change their employment field entirely or undergo unemployment.

Ground Reality of Policy Implementation: Case Analysis of PM Surya Ghar

Although the reasons for this selective growth of renewable energy are subject to the climate of that region, the majority of the responsibility still comes down to the government stakeholders, both state and central governments, as well as private renewable players, to coordinate with each other and generate awareness about the schemes and subsidies to promote the transition from conventional to renewable green sources at the industrial as well as at the commercial level. 

For instance, one of the schemes by the Modi government, PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana (P.M.S.G.M.B.Y.), reached the mark of a total of 10 lakh beneficiaries by 10th March 2025; however, the total number of applications received was 47.3 lakhs only [20], which constitutes a mere 0.5% of the total rural population of India, within which even only 20% of applicants benefited from the scheme [20]. Furthermore, only households in a few states, such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, and Rajasthan, accounted for around 83% of total beneficiaries [20], inferring selective promotion and implementation of the scheme throughout the nation as well as failure of state governments to promote and raise awareness about the policy in their respective regions.

Furthermore, as the scheme depended on the inspection and installation of solar equipment by respective DISCOMs individually rather than by a central authority, this might have resulted in procedures varying from region to region based upon the capacity of individual DISCOMs, resulting in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, whose DISCOMs lacked renewable infrastructure and financial support, lagging in the procedure.

Trump’s Return and Tariffs: Is India’s Renewable Transition under Attack?

With the second US presidential term of Donald Trump, India finds itself at another crossroads of transition, as the Pacific superpower withdrawing again from the Paris Agreement while pushing extensively for the extraction of fossil fuels is expected to lead to a reduction of less renewable projects in the US, thus fewer exports of solar and wind equipment, i.e., less sales and growth for the Indian renewable manufacturers in the market. To add salt to the wound, new tariff regulations, supposedly 36% over Indian solar exports [21], by the White House have resulted in even more uncertainty within manufacturers as it raises the bar for cost competitiveness against other South Asian countries while maintaining their own marginal profit in the foreign markets. Though theoretically this might result in a push for domestic growth by the local manufacturers and reduced equipment prices, due to selective regions, as mentioned earlier, promoting the policies, any fruitful conclusion and estimation can’t be made as of the current standing.

Moreover, with the termination of more than 150 climate and clean energy contracts and grants valued at $1.2 billion that were managed by the U.S. Agency, various developing nations, including India, that had various projects established or in discussion are set to face financial complications in advancing years while transitioning towards clean energy sources [22].

Conclusion: What’s next for India and renewables?

India’s current standing on renewables, though an example for other developing nations in their journey towards sustainable energy development, is now met by various political challenges from implementation to different stakeholder levels. 

DISCOMs of various states are facing technical and financial resistance, which has become an obstacle in the implementation of policies, leading states to lag behind renewable targets directed by CEA. Moreover, political involvement between political parties and private coal players, as well as various coal-related scams, are not just affecting India’s transition but also the livelihood of a population of more than 2 crore, which will be affected by this shift in energy.

Successful states, such as Gujarat and Rajasthan, where the state government has pushed for renewables and various state-central sponsored schemes, such as PM Surya Yojana, have enabled their residents to benefit financially while shifting dependency from coal towards greener alternatives.

States such as Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal that have high dependency on coal now have to start a smooth yet cautious transition from being coal-driven regions to having diversified sources of energy while safeguarding the interests of stakeholders, such as coal workers and local communities, to either have resource access and continued livelihood in coal or be skilled and trained for the incoming green jobs and related industries. Direct coordination between both central and state governments will be required to effectively implement policies at ground level while also allowing private collaboration, reducing stress on DISCOMs of states, especially ones in deep financial crises.

In order for India to meet the monumental task of renewable capacity of 500 GW while meeting 50 percent of the energy requirement from the same by 2030, inclusion of all stakeholders will be required while navigating through new global order shifts and tensions.

Nonetheless, India’s renewable transition will be the ultimate testing ground for the globe on whether the world’s largest democracy can democratically navigate away from carbon dependency while ensuring no community is left behind.

References

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