Shivesh Kaushik
Abstract
Bangladesh is the only nation India entered in a war with, a hostile power. Post 1971 India assisted Bangladesh in government formation, civil services training and bureaucracy standardisation. Post 1971 the newly born nation suffered economic stagnation as well as political stability. 8-9 Million refugees were accommodated into the Indian territory. Be it the era of BNP or Aweami league, India advocated for development projects in Bangladesh spanning from energy to infrastructure sector, education and skill training. Contentious issues like villages and enclaves beside porous borders were solved in 2015. However , today the country is undergoing a power tussle and regime change, opening doors for radical groups. With about 8 billion dollar investment, more than 4000 km border, river dispute, India remains unconscious to Bangladesh changing political landscape.
Key-Words: Hostile Power, Civil services training, enclaves, porous borders, river disputes.
Introduction
In India, one of the main reasons for which Indians view Bangladesh differently from its eastern neighbour is its cultural tolerance and assimilation. Bangladesh once called east pakistan walked significant miles to be ahead and distinct from what its original character was, being part of pakistan. It demonstrated and incarnated a secular features along with a Bengali identity, with substantial Non muslims population as a part of main-stream. It is widely evident that Mukti Vahini got popular Indian support, Indian army trained cadres of them and confronted Pakistani general Tikka Khan. To be specific, Bangladesh would not have formed had it not been supported by the mighty Indian military, air superiority, naval blockade and a strong political will. Since then, the country progressed through its textile business chain, remittances from foreign nationals, seafood businesses.
India and Bangladesh share a long border, with fragile and porous borders. A lot of areas are within the realm of water bodies, enclaves, rivers and lakes. According to the Bangladesh genocide archives, 8-9 million refugees took shelter across 829 refugee camps in India. Today, Bangladesh is the largest bordering nation to India. It fences 4,096 Km of border between each other. Additionally India and Bangladesh are the largest trading partners in south asia. Total trade volume stands around 13.5 Billion dollars in FY2025.[1]
Bangladesh after 1971: birth, trauma and coup.
One of the reasons for military intervention in either nation; Pakistan and Bangladesh is its character of buildup. In his book, A unique military intervention in Bangladesh by MM Rehman chaudhary, he says the Bangladesh military is a political arbitrator, they malign the image of a civilian government and emerge as “guardian of stability” It has been a spice of coup, caretaker governance and political mediation. Bangladesh since its inception post mujeeb’s era had contentious relations with military before he was assassinated on 15th august 1975.
Abdul Majib (one of the killers) confessed before his execution in 2010 that, Zia Ur rehman was behind the assassination of “Bangbandhu” . Reports suggest that general Zia was ambitious and wanted to be the chief of army staff, which Mujeeb ur rehman led Awami league refused. Approximately 90% of the population in Bangladesh lived below the poverty line in 1971. Alongside, poor gender ratio, no major cities (except Dhaka), famine had coupled the economy for a newly born nation. It was finally in 1990’s when the civilian govt regained power through constitutional and institutional means. However the birth of the Bangladesh national party, BNP, by General Jia Ur rehman ended a singular electoral politics. It shaped the future ideological discourse in the politics of the nation.[2]
Rise of Awami league and its battle with the BNP
There is a streak of ideological and cultural difference between the two rivals. Awami league was a symbol of Independence, Bengali identity over urdu imposition, rise of a new nation. It is usually called “centre to left”. It advocates social justice, minority rights, progressive public policy. BNP formed in 1978 by Jia ur Rehman is based on Islam as national identity, traditional islamic lifestyles, values and customs. It proposes nationalism, conservatism. After the mass uprising in 1990, dictator Gen Muhhanad Ershad resigned which allowed democracy to return. The parliamentary election 1996 became a pivotal moment for the Awami league under Sheikh Hasina.
The Awami League took up welfare politics, a voice for the marginalized. It had development orientation. Padma bridge, Dhaka metro rail project, Special economic zones were made during this time. However during this time, Bangladesh witnessed a steep rise in debt to Gdp ratio, total debt at 18.32 lakh crore. BNP on the other hand promulgated conservatism, orthodoxy. They inflicted a narrative that cultural values are diminishing under Hasina. Awami league was alleged for political vengeance, vendetta against its rivals.
Bangladesh is an interesting country in its design to conduct elections, which makes it mandatory for the incumbent government to appoint a caretaker government under which the election commission conducts elections nationwide. Both the BNP and Awami league have not adhered to this principle all over. For instance, Khalija Jia was reluctant on the issue of a caretaker government in 1996, which she later succumbed to and finally lost the election, making the way for Awami league. It is observed that neither of the parties participate in the election without a caretaker government appointed for free and fair elections.
In 2024, analysts believed that rejection for a caretaker government led to BNP boycotting the general elections. It sparked mass protests and agitation against the awami league.
The current crisis; ousting of Sheikh Hasina, Ban on Awami league.
The recent outrage against Sheikh Hasina is the culmination of political and economic instability. Post 2009, it is perceived that Bangladesh is under one party rule. This is due to mass crackdown against opposition leaders, arrests, and digital surveillance. The prime opposition party BNP boycotted the general elections in 2014 and 2024. In fact it showed a partial participation in the 2018 general election. A general consensus of deceit, concealing of facts, rigged elections developed in the minds of people, against Awami League.
Several controversial and contentious bills, acts were brought to suppress the voice of opposition, such as the Digital service act, abolishing caretaker government model. Additionally it witnessed a rise in unemployment rate under hasina from 3.8% in 2010 to 5.1% in 2023. Youth and urban societies are considered a wide base for the Awami league. A dissent in youth could never be an ideal scenario for the party. Awami League as a party had influence in the bureaucracy, army and local administration.
In 2024, the civil services quota system was raised to 30% for the families of freedom fighters in the 1971 war. Additional quotas for political and special groups were included. It fermented mass agitation in the minds of unemployed youth, the middle class etc.
Initially the protests were campus centric which later spread to trade unions, factory workers, transport unions. It had wide support from right wing groups to push their campaign against Hasina’s stance on secularism. The military in the beginning tried to curtail the protests by lathi charge, shoot at sight orders, pallet guns and smoke machines. According to estimates, around 1,500 people died and significant student leaders lost their lives. As the protest amassed, the army refused to further crack down on the protestors.
Meanwhile, according to some reports, Sheikh Hasina contacted Indian counterparts, which concluded on Hasina deciding to flee to India. As soon as she left the Bangladesh air space behind, the protestors thronged inside the prime minister’s house and spread chaos all over. Very soon Awami league offices were attacked, leaders were killed, looted. Shakib Al Hasan a famous Bangladeshi Cricketer refused to return to bangladesh after cricket series. Hasina is charged for crime against humanity; the cases are under trial.
The International crime tribunal of Bangladesh sentenced her to death on multiple counts. As of now Hasina resides in New Delhi in an unknown space, where India watches the development in Bangladesh closely. Meanwhile condemning Hasina as pro india leader, several islamic groups have attacked minorities, violent acts were recorded at higher frequency in Dhaka and other places.[3]
The India way; chaos and crisis
India monitors the ongoing interim government under MD Yunus. The ministry of foreign affairs stated that India remains committed to cooperate with peaceful, participative, transparent Bangladesh. Bangladesh is of strategic importance to India spanning from river diplomacy, enclaves exchange, border fencing, refugees crisis. A secular, progressive Bangladesh suits Indian interests of stability, harmony at least in North east India. As of now, India has lent 8 billion dollars to Bangladesh through various lines of credits. Akhaura agartala rail link of 12.5 km, Khulna mongla port rail line are significant Indian supported projects.
Maitree super thermal powerplant carries symbology of friendship, close ties and people to people linkage. The rise of ultranationalism in Bangladesh provides room for Pakistan to enter Dhaka’s policy making. It will be vulnerable for India. Jamaat ae Islami Joining the new league of government is potentially anti India in its approach. India has no option rather than to wait for the elections decided in Feb 2026, in which Awami league is banned to contest any type of election. The upcoming of a civilian government will redirect the Indian-Bangladesh relationships
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Exploring India Bangladesh Trade and Economic Relations | IBEF
[2] Ex-Bangladesh Army chief behind murder of ‘Bangabandhu’: Killer’s confession
History would have been different | The Daily Star
शेख़ मुजीबुर्रहमान: बांग्लादेश के संस्थापक की हत्या का सच – BBC News हिंदी
Poverty Reduction during 1971-2013 Periods: Success and its Recent Trends in Bangladesh
Awami League vs. BNP – What’s the Difference? | This vs. That
Khaleda Zia | Biography & Facts | Britannica
[3] Sheikh Hasina gets death penalty in Bangladesh: A complete timeline and how it puts India in a tight spot
Around 1,500 killed in Bangladesh protests that ousted PM Hasina | Reuters
Shaikh Hasina Takes Over From Khalida Zia in Successful Bangladesh Election
Awami League: In 1971, post-1975 and today – Northeast News – Northeast India news 24×7