By – Shipra Dwivedi
Introduction
The 20th century led to a complex scenario in the South – Asian continent, where three nations got caught up in a complicated web of geopolitics and, while fending for themselves, they came together or against each other to strengthen their regional and global dominance. Russia, India, and China have come a long way from surviving to aspiring and bringing home the achievements they once dreamt of India, on the one hand, aspires to become the Vishwa Guru, something Hon’ble PM Narendra Modi has been campaigning on every global platform, that can lead the world by setting examples of global governance and an impeccable example of balancing its international relations among various contradicting nations and bringing them on a common platform of global peace and prosperity. While Russia wants to secure itself and its people, its concept of governance is rooted in social welfare and communist methods. Then, there’s China, a nation that is no less than a mystery and an open book simultaneously. While it is evident that China aims to be a superpower by 2030, its friendly demeanour and global economic statistics seem to make it a dream rather than a target to hit. It so happens that these three nations are tied up in the complicated web of cooperation and national interests.
These nations do not enjoy being the most amicable states compared to their Western counterparts, such as the USA – Canada, or the European Union. The differentiated nature of governance and the policies indicating the sovereign nature of the nation is a humble hoop that these nations have to jump through time and again. Some of the milestones in the 20th as well as the 21st century that have determined the current structure of foreign relations in the Asian countries can be denoted as the eve of independence for India and creation of Pakistan in 1947, liberation of China in 1949, Indo – China War in 1962, Bangladesh Liberation War, 1971- 72, Sino – Soviet Split in 1989, USSR Disintegration in 1991, Kargil War in 1999, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Terrorist attacks in Uri and Pulwama in 2016 and 2019 respectively, Sino – India Standoff in 2020, and the latest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 20, 2022. For this reason, the national interests and questions of sovereignty often clash with regional cooperation and cooperative governance in Asia, adding to the complications in the internal governance of the nations so concerned. The decisive factors in consideration shall be the Sino-Soviet Split, USSR Disintegration, formation of BRICS, and beginning of independent and exclusive foreign relations amongst India, Russia and China. To a great extent, BRICS has stabilised regional tensions and brought nations together for cooperative, integrated, and responsible governance. As far as the regional organisations are concerned, it has proved to be the most effective, with a comprehensive framework covering the economy, energy, defence, and cumulative interests of nations.
Change in Political Trajectory
India, Russia and China began their independent political journey during the ending years of World War II. Their participation and allegiance shaped their political structure. However, this was not the defining factor in their established governance. Through the years, India and Russia have developed a steadfast relationship with each other, backed by mutual principles of governance, social welfare, and national security. During the early years of its independence, when the world was shifting towards bipolarity and the two superpowers were busy making alliances, India, along with many of the Third World Nations, sought to remain independent and follow the policy of Non-Alignment to secure its interests. It sought educational and research cooperation from the West while USSR helped India build and maintain a secure and skilled defence force, land, air or navy. During conflicts with its neighbours in the ’60s and the ’70s, India shifted towards the USSR, which ensured national security and integrity and helped India battle and win against the conspiring neighbours. This assistance paved the way for the comprehensive defence and strategic relationship between India and USSR and later Russia. This relationship has stood up to the tests of time and has been one of the most productive and secure relationships in the history of independent India. India sees Russia as a friend it can rely on, even in dire times.
Meanwhile, India has had a seemingly complex relationship with China. At the beginning of the foreign relations between both nations, they sought to amicably resolve issues of territorial extent, use of resources, and so on. The signing of the Panchsheel Agreement marked the era of peaceful resolution of disputes between the two nations and strengthened their relationships. However, in 1962, India faced attacks from China across the northern and north-eastern borders of India. China claimed it did not recognise the McMahon Line, which divided the territories of the two nations and stated that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is what India must adhere to, which covers almost half of the state of Arunachal Pradesh and this is one of the major issues that India has on several occasions tried to discuss with China. However, these efforts have yet to be significantly successful because China has been adamant about its claims and has even gone ahead and claimed the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh, naming it Zangtan.
Till 2010 or 2012, relations between India and China remained complex, wherein the nations maintained healthy economic relations by providing markets for each other’s products and services. On the other hand, tensions rose across the borders between China and Pakistan. At the same time, India signed agreements that established the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC). This Commission had two divisions: one, which looked after the trade and economic functions between the two nations and the other, military and military-technical cooperation. While China may have become a foe in the eyes of Indian defence forces, Russia is still seen as a friend and stands with solidarity in times of crisis.
Sino-Russia Relations and India
Indeed, the past decade has witnessed a declining foreign and strategic defence relationship between India and China against each other, an effort both nations have heavily invested in. This is not only in terms of defence expenditures but also in the diplomatic efforts both India and China put into finding common ground of agreement on some of its issues. Albeit, with China’s adamant attitude in regards to Indian territories of Arunachal Pradesh, Aksai Chin, Sikkim and parts of Uttarakhand, it looks like a distant dream bearing armed conflicts, bloodshed and hostility.
Interestingly, Russia is a strong defence partner for both India and China. This is where the complexities between these Central Asian countries cannot be overlooked. In such a case, the involvement of an international organisation is a solution. Still, given the UN’s ineffectiveness in matters of such delicacy, regional organisations were formed to empower and raise a collective voice of nations with similar interests and standards.
The establishment of BRICS signified the cooperation amongst the culturally, economically and socio-politically diverse nations to find common ground and to have an opinionated representation on the global platform. The organisation comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa and seeks comprehensive socio-economic and strategic partnerships and assistance towards their collective and individual developmental goals. Such a distinct combination is chaotic enough to manage and function in the long run. Still, BRICS has managed to shock everyone with its commitment, consistency and efficiency. But that doesn’t change the fact that 3 of its most influential members are often at crossroads in their bilateral equations. How these nations interact with each other dramatically affects their functionality at BRICS and, by extension, at the United Nations.
The effect of BRICS has allowed these nations to raise their concerns and endeavour to challenge tides while maintaining and uplifting their socio-political and economic interests while investing in each other’s security. But this voyage has not been easy; BRICS has had to manage some of the most decisive encounters in recent years, beginning with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and continues to be a farce in the face of geopolitics. It is one of the most challenging dilemmas of the organisation that it has not yet put its collective interest of security and integrity into action because of the growing tensions between India and China, China’s inclusion with the Russian counterparts and their proximity. Many, supported by few, have condemned Russia’s invasion, and some nations have, by far, abstained from making comments on it, stating it to be their bilateral concern. China and India are few such nations. India’s reason stands by its motto of global peace and security and ensuring amicable relations with Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, China’s evolved interest is because of its defence aspirations and the support given by Russia in seeking them. China’s abstinence on the Russian issue makes it clear of the ongoing and expected defence deals that will steer its defence ecosystem.
Conclusion
The unresolved disputes of territorial extent, trade, cultural exchanges, and inclusive liberties are often prioritised while framing foreign relations amongst these nations. In such a case, India can only hope to be as good a friend to Russia as to have its support on international platforms, such as UNGA, UNSC, BRICS, and ASEAN. These diplomatic and defence ties are intended to overpower the SCO and China’s influence concerning India’s interests.
Although India has not been able to evade its China problems, it has resolved to an alternate route of strengthening its ties with Russia, giving it leverage over the Chinese Government, which has multiple implications in the form of improvement of defence and increase in the number of defence weapons and aircraft with latest technologies and the research and development in the sector. This has also attracted various other nations to enter into partnerships with India, giving us the options of an economic bargain and choosing the best option suitable for our requirements. One must not consider this an achievement as Russia and China have also worked out their cooperative defence interests in the past years, which has put China in a forward position compared to India, gaining favour or absence from its ally.
China is smart enough to overlook its previous foes and go ahead with its neighbours if it ensures its China Supremacy Scheme as circulated in geopolitical debates, contradicting the scenario after the Sino – Soviet Split. However, seeing trouble on the South-Western borders and impeding relations between India – and Russia, China has decided to test its waters with its Russian counterparts; although it has not left out the complexities of its deals with Russia, persuasion seems to have worked well on Russia as they signed another Defence Agreement, despite the West’s criticism, but that has less than no effect on Asian countries these days. The agreement seems comprehensive, showing socio-economic aspects and military improvements, but India is not unfazed as it directly affects the Indian borders. The primary reason is the feeble credibility of their ties; the second is China’s sweeping attention from East to Central Asia to the Indo-Pacific and areas in and surrounding the South-East China Sea. The third is based on India’s fiduciary relationship with Russia, the uncertainty of the future of SCO and bilateral relations, and a clear statement that President Putin is declining any military alliance with its Chinese counterparts. Russia, India and China are trapped in a loop of conflicts, disagreements and economic dependency, leading to a predictable hard-power diplomatic solution for them. However, despite military engagements and diplomatic efforts, there is always a looming threat of multifold consequences of this endangered complexity. How far they can evade the inevitable is another shoe waiting to be dropped.