Gurleen Kaur
Diplomatic ties between India and Canada, though usually healthy, have soured over the last few years. Trade and cultural exchange have historically defined relations between the two countries, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that India played a part in orchestrating the killing of a prominent Sikh activist has led to a bitter standoff. Canada-India relations sharply deteriorated in September 2023 when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau linked the murder of Canadian Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar to Indian State agents. The crisis deepened in October 2024 when Ottawa accused Indian diplomats of being complicit in criminal activities, including intimidation, extortion and murder. New Delhi rejected these claims, labelling Canada a “safe haven” for extremism and anti-India activities. This unprecedented crisis in modern diplomatic history was exacerbated by further allegations of “foreign interference” by Indian agents in Canada’s electoral processes.
Historical Roots: The Khalistan Movement – From the Past to the Present
The fragilities of this seemingly strong link have recently come to light with the diplomatic clashes surrounding the controversial Khalistan Movement. Launched around the 1940s independence of Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, the goal of the campaign is to set up a separate State for Sikhs in Punjab known as Khalistan (meaning the ‘Land of the Khalsa‘ or ‘Pure’). While originally similar to other secessionist movements, the method of achieving their goals has since become distinct and unconventional. Recalling their military background, the late 20th century saw a reformed struggle characterized by violent ethnonationalism. The shift is attributed to Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale’s rise to Sikh leadership in 1982. Declared by the Indian State as a trained Indian militant, he was accused of violence wherein his extremist followers committed mass killings, assassinations of opposition leaders, and bombings of civilian infrastructures in the name of responding to perceived injustices and political marginalization. Given this nature of violence and frequent intervention in Indian affairs, the movement was violently suppressed by the Indian State and met with a controversial countermovement by Indian society. Their efforts included everything from all-out military operations (such as the infamous Operation Blue Star) to anti-Sikh communal riots. This weakened the movement considerably and brought it to an end in India in the 20th century. Internationally, however, displaced followers of the violent Khalistan Movement began a trajectory toward societies where significant Sikh communities had already been established. The most significant import was to Canada, where they were accused of the 1985 terrorist attack on Air India Flight 182, small-scale armed operations and bombings. Following the increase in associated violence, the Canadian government even designated two Khalistan Movement-associated groups as terrorist entities in 2003. These included the Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) and the International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF).
While India and Canada shared deep political, economic and social relations, the threat of the Khalistan Movement thus always seemed to loom in the diplomatic background. Over the years, these hidden hostilities have translated into frosty exchanges. In February 2018, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came under fire for the Canadian High Commissioner’s decision to invite Jaspal Singh Atwal, a former ISYF terrorist group member, to a State dinner in New Delhi. In December 2020, another spat occurred when India’s Ministry of External Affairs accused him of interfering in its internal affairs after he made “unwarranted” comments on Indian farmer protests allegedly “infiltrated by Khalistanis.” Likewise, September 2022 saw India expressing its “concern and disappointment” over Ottawa’s apparent inaction in the face of an unofficial voting exercise among Canadian Sikhs called the “Khalistan Referendum.” Together, these seemingly small and insignificant exchanges paved the way for the outbreak of an all-out diplomatic crisis. It culminated in June 2023 with the shooting of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver. In response to the controversial killing, anti-Indian sentiment and activities began to brew in Canada. More specifically, posters were distributed calling for violence against Indians, cash rewards were offered for the home addresses of Indian diplomats, and temples were vandalized. On September 9 and 10, 2023 the G20 Conference held in New Delhi further highlighted tensions between the two countries. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held bilateral meetings with many world leaders, but snubbed Trudeau.
Domestic Politics: Mistrust in terms of National Security?
The most significant challenge in Canada-India relations stems from each country’s concerns over perceived threats to their national security and sovereignty. While the Nijjar murder case presents a shocking affront to Canada’s sovereignty, New Delhi raises alarms over what it perceives as one of its gravest national security threats: Khalistani extremism on Canadian soil, a movement that advocates for an independent Sikh state, Khalistan, to be carved out of the Indian state of Punjab. Both nations recognize that violence and extremism are shared challenges requiring joint solutions and reinforced law enforcement co-operation. In this context, the participation of the Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) at the recent Conclave of Intelligence Chiefs from around the world, held on the sidelines of the Raisina Dialogue — India’s largest annual security conference was a much welcomed development.
The harbouring of elements by Canada which threaten the sovereignty of India is a classic tale of the former’s domestic liberal overreach gone awry. Democratic freedom in Canada today is masquerading as political protection for transnational crimes. The 21st-century debates around state sovereignty focused on sovereignty passing on from the state to the individual but when this is viewed from the lens of transnational lens, states’ assertions of sovereignty are likely to override individualistic assertions of the same. The individual’s sovereign rights are a function of the state’s ability to defend and assert its sovereignty, both inside and outside. The fact that India and its Sikh population have turned the page on the Khalistan movement of yesteryear while it is simmering in Canada reflects the asymmetry between the two democracies. The dichotomy widens when the current circumstances are stacked against the politics of Canada’s liberal elite, primarily the functionaries of its Liberal Party.
The political fallout between India and Canada can also serve as a lesson in changing power dynamics and state response. The response of modern states, especially those like India that are aware of their growing global standing, reflects a shift towards a more assertive foreign policy that prioritises national integrity over traditional and expected diplomatic niceties. For Canada, recognizing India’s genuine and legitimate concerns about sovereignty will be crucial in determining the future of their bilateral relationship. If Canada continues to disregard the shifts in the global power landscape, it risks further damaging its ties with India, which could have lasting repercussions not only for bilateral trade and diplomacy but also for its own role in Asia which it seeks through its Indo-Pacific strategy. The failure to recognize these shifts has the potential to undermine a historically strong relationship. A statement from the Indian Foreign Ministry said: “This latest step follows interactions that have again witnessed assertions without any facts. This leaves little doubt that on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains.” The foreign ministry statement went on to add: “The Trudeau Government has consciously provided space to violent extremists and terrorists to harass, threaten and intimidate Indian diplomats and community leaders in Canada.”
To this end, India and Canada must find new yet responsible ways to address their domestic ethnic battles. This sustainable and inclusive solution can only be achieved in the spirit of cooperation, respect for equally legitimate normative interests, and the transcendence of the politics of the government of the day. The reason is simple. More than a security issue or a sovereignty matter, this diplomatic gridlock raises a humanitarian crisis due to the vulnerable Sikh thread that pulls these two seemingly different States together.
Diaspora Diplomacy
According to the social constructivist approach, culture shapes the way in which individuals and groups think of, involve themselves in collective actions in and interpret the world. This approach emphasises the roles that identity and culture play in world politics and their influence on the production of domestic and international policies. While identities are shaped by historical, political and social contexts, culture is used to construct, articulate and receive meanings as well as describe lived and creative experience. Diasporas reflect aspects of purity and hybridity, primordial subdivisions and constructed formation, and reality and imagination as well as alienation and belonging. These dichotomies lead to the description of diasporas as communities that hold a ‘double consciousness’, and a ‘double engagement’. These communities are sustained by a common history, heritage, language, culture and rituals as well as collective memories and experiences of displacement, which play a significant role in maintaining and reproducing their ‘social formation and collective identity’. These objective features might be supplemented by more subjective experiences of exclusion, xenophobia and racial discrimination, which diaspora members face in new environments.
India and Canada have a number of educational and cultural exchange programs. There are over 1.3 million Canadians of Indian origin. This is a significant aspect for soft power diplomacy of India. Canada has a sizable Indian diaspora, with Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) and Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) accounting for more than 4% of the nation’s population. Recognizing this, the Canadian government in 2019, designated April as Sikh Heritage Month. From 2013 to 2022, the number of Indians granted permanent residency increased by 260%, indicating a stronger bond between the two countries. With nearly 1.8 million Indo-Canadians and another 1 million non resident Indians, Canada hosts one of the largest Indian Diaspora abroad, which account for more than 3% of its total population. The diaspora, whose main concentration is in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Vancouver area, Montreal (Quebec), Calgary and Edmonton (Alberta), Ottawa (Ontario) and Winnipeg (Manitoba) have contributed significantly to the Canadian economy & society. There are numerous businesses at the moment and Diaspora organizations, supporting enhanced bilateral relations between the two countries.
Strategic Consequences: What are the Bilateral consequences of this Conflict?
These chains of events and conflict between the two countries have been a point of concern due to its economic, social and political consequences at a bilateral level.
First, the conflict is predicted to have had insignificant immediate effects from a financial standpoint, but its long-term consequences remain ambiguous. Officially, India and Canada have expressed their desires to prevent the diplomatic fallout from immediately impacting their bilateral trade. Despite the pause in trade negotiations, both states have published statements reassuring their full commitment to engaging with and supporting their “well-established commercial ties,” currently valued at around $8 billion. Still, scholars caution that further economic growth could be hindered if the situation becomes more hostile through the imposition of tariffs or other forms of economic retaliation. Education and research partnerships have long been pillars of Canada-India ties, with Indian students forming the largest international student cohort in Canada in 2023. However, recent changes in Canadian immigration policy — including cuts to student visas by 35 per cent in 2024 and an additional 10 per cent reduction planned in 2025 alongside the bilateral diplomatic row and rising living costs in Canada, have significantly impacted the Canada-India higher education corridor. Thus, Canada must prepare for the possibility that, if Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) negotiations resume in the near future, they may not continue in the same form as when discussions were paused. Structural shifts in the global economic and political order, alongside evolving national priorities, will likely reshape the agenda. Future trade talks would need to focus more on economic security issues such as supply chain resilience, energy security and mitigating shared geopolitical risks.
Secondly, both the countries pride themselves on the profound “people-to-people” connections that they share through their large migrant communities. However, this reality necessitates a considerable and effective diplomatic staff to ensure that their needs are met. Unfortunately, the tit-for-tat expulsions have caused a reduction in government agents carrying out diplomatic work. For potential Indian migrants, immigration lawyers have expressed concern that this tension could negatively affect their plans to work, study or visit family in Canada. While immigration processing remains operational, they warn that applicants may expect delays in issuing visas, filing paperwork and fulfilling other administrative tasks. Simultaneously, the conflict leaves the active diaspora communities equally vulnerable. As anti-immigration and xenophobic sentiments rise, fewer resources and services may be afforded for the protection of civilians abroad. From a social perspective, the conflict thus seems to disproportionately affect individuals over other key actors. Canada has also voiced concerns over student visas, trade talks and people-to-people ties, many of which have been impacted as both sides issue warnings and adjust their diplomatic stances. Canada remains a popular destination for Indian students and professionals, with thousands emigrating each year. The long-term impact of these moves particularly on Indian students, who represent one of the largest groups of international students in Canada, remains unclear.
Lastly, the tensions may have territorially expanded a phenomenon known as “vote bank politics” that was historically considered exclusive to South Asian Statecraft. In his 1950s essay entitled “The Social Structure of a Mysore Village,” M. N. Srinivas coined the term based on an observation that the pluralistic nature of Indian society may have caused differing (and sometimes even clashing) political interests among castes, communities or religious groups. Recognizing that favorable electoral outcomes and the aggregation of power would only be possible through widespread popular support, early forms of Indian political parties thus mobilized voters based on their social identities by promising them various forms of material and non-material benefits. Politicians would then act as patrons by providing the pledged resources, favors and representation to those client communities. He called such groups “vote banks” as he believed their collective voting behavior could be predictably swayed in favor of a particular party or candidate. Based on the values of obligation and reciprocity, the phenomenon thus reflects a potential transactional nature of Indian politics. On this note, India and the Canadian opposition party have accused the Trudeau Government of adopting the political practice in a strategic attempt to secure the Sikh vote. One of his former Foreign Policy Advisers, Omer Aziz, even argues that the timing of the crackdowns on Canada’s South Asian ally was no coincidence. While slight tensions have always been present between the two countries, he points out that Trudeau’s emboldened public support for Sikhs began with his February 2018 visit to India – a mere 4 months after the election of a new leader of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP): Jagmeet Singh. Canada has a “first-past-the-post” electoral system. The candidate who gets the most votes in each electoral district, or riding, wins that seat and becomes a Member of Parliament (MP). The Liberals and the Conservatives have dominated the popular vote, with both parties receiving more than 40% each of ballots counted across Canada. Between them, they have over 90% of seats.
Turnout had surpassed the levels seen in 2015 and 2019, with 69% of registered electors having voted. This is according to Elections Canada’s updated estimates by May, 2025. More than 7 million Canadians casted their ballots in advance, setting a new record for early voter turnout.
Future Pathways
The diplomatic row saw both countries expelling top diplomats, led to a pause in bilateral free trade negotiations and severe impact on the higher education corridor and public perceptions on both sides of the relationship. However, as Ottawa transitions to new political leadership amid an escalating U.S. trade war and existential threats from President Donald Trump, it must find constructive ways to strengthen partnerships and diversify trade with like-minded nations. This is especially critical with rising powers such as India, which is set to play an increasingly influential role in the Indo-Pacific and the evolving geopolitical and global economic landscape. India has interests of its own in collaborating with Canada more closely as it navigates uncertainties under the Trump administration. While New Delhi has so far managed its relations with Washington and the threat of tariffs more effectively than Canada, its high tariff wall, such as on agricultural products, is a continuing irritant in trade ties with the U.S. It also remains wary of a potential Trump-led rapprochement between Washington and Beijing – its foremost regional rival with which it shares a disputed 3,488-kilometre border. Despite diplomatic tensions, Canada and India have shared strategic interests in deepening economic ties, as well as enhancing co-operation on peace and security issues in the Indo-Pacific, particularly as China’s regional assertiveness rises and uncertainty looms over how the U.S. might respond to regional security challenges. Recent reports of alleged activities of Indian Intelligence Agencies, notably the Research and Analysis Wing in countries as far away as Canada, the United States and Australia have brought to the fore the contentious issue of intelligence operations. As India navigates its role in the global intelligence landscape, it faces a myriad of converging and diverging interests with Five Eyes. One of the pillars of India’s foreign policy doctrine emphasises strategic autonomy and non-alignment, which often conflicts with the objectives of the Five Eyes alliance. While India seeks to maintain friendly relations with all nations, including those outside the Five Eyes, its approach is often divergent from the alliance’s unified stance on certain geopolitical issues.
The Five Eyes, which includes the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, is a well-established intelligence-sharing network among these English-speaking countries. Since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations against India rely on intelligence rather than hard evidence, many speculate that the knowledge came from the Five Eyes. The clandestine nature of Five Eyes’ operations makes it a fertile ground for geopolitical intrigue. Additionally, India maintains deep and multi-dimensional relationships with three of the Five Eyes members: the US, UK, and Australia. Political disagreements, such as the ongoing Khalistan issue with the UK, have not fundamentally altered these strategic ties that have evolved in chasing convergences through ‘2+2 mechanisms and strategic partnerships. Nonetheless, the Indian commentariat remains fixated on the idea that the Five Eyes are working to destabilise India’s rise.
Rebuilding trust will require confronting difficult truths on both sides and a commitment to managing differences without letting them define the entire relationship. Other Five Eyes countries have managed to pursue strategic co-operation with India while navigating sensitive diaspora and security issues. Canada should aim to do the same, especially as it looks to diversify its global partnerships and reduce its overreliance on the United States. India, too, stands to benefit from a more constructive relationship with Canada as a source of trusted capital, critical minerals, technology, innovation, and FDI. With both countries facing shifting geopolitical dynamics and regional uncertainty, this is a moment that must be seized. A full reset will not happen overnight. But with political leadership, renewed diplomatic engagement, and a clear-eyed understanding of each other’s priorities, Canada and India can move beyond the current impasse toward a more resilient and forward looking partnership. For now, as both nations are at an impasse, and the future of their relationship rests on navigating the complexities of Sikh identity, national sovereignty, and diaspora politics.
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