By – Jyothi Sharma
Abstract
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir elections are the harbinger of a new political direction that India shall take. It is not just the formation of a government in the Union Territory, which has been under President’s Rule since August 2019, but it also determines certain policy shifts, legal developments, and socio-political dynamics of the area in question. [1]Since August 2019, Article 370 and Article 35A were abrogated, thereby fundamentally changing the political map of Jammu and Kashmir. Consequently, elections this time will be crucially important as far as governance and autonomy of the region are concerned.[2]
Background: Abrogation of Article 370 and Aftermath
More directly, the revocation of Article 370 in August 2019 effectively deprived Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and integrated it into the Indian Union. With Article 370, Jammu and Kashmir became somewhat autonomous; it could have its own constitution, it could make laws for its inhabitants, and with the revocation of these provisions, Jammu and Kashmir was further reorganized into two Union Territories—Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh, through the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act of 2019.[3]
It was a very controversial move. It has dramatically changed the legal structure of the region and directly affected the political as well as social setup of the region.[4] After its abrogation, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed President’s Rule, which has put the region directly under the control of the central government. The return of political autonomy through the electoral process would be a test of these new policy measures in their reception with the local population.[5]
There is a sense of uncertainty that pervades the landscape leading to elections to the state in the 2024. The traditional parties-NC, PDP, and Congress-struggle to stay relevant, while on the other hand, the BJP was adding strength at a fast pace, especially in the Jammu region where a strong nationalist narrative works to its favour.[6]
The Delimitation Commission of the legislative assembly constituencies had submitted its report in May 2022, thereby increasing the total number of seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly from 83 to 90. It was a controversial step since NC and PDP claim this is an attempt at gerrymandering in favour of BJP, mainly in the Jammu region[7].
Adding to this complexity is the emergence of new political outfits, which are being added to the electoral fray: the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, or JKAP, and, most prominently, the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, or PAGD – an alliance of parties that seek the reinstatement of Article 370. This adds a layer of intricacy to the electoral contest.[8]
Electoral Legal Framework
The elections law regime in Jammu and Kashmir came through the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019. This act nullified or modified many of the laws of the state to substitute the Indian Constitution on its constitution and render several local laws as void or amended to be in consonance with the laws of the nation.
Unlike in the past, when Jammu and Kashmir had its own election commission, today it is the ECI that conducts elections. The 2024 elections will be held as mandated by the Representation of the People Act, 1951, applicable to every election in India.[9]
A host of legal challenges and debates keeps popping up as elections nearby:
Restoration of Statehood: Restitution of statehood status is one of the primary legal demands in Jammu and Kashmir. The Union Centre indicated the hope to begin restitution of statehood “at an appropriate time” but, meanwhile, held elections under the Union Territory status in 2024[10]. This has been a constant feature in political discourses and is requested by parties like NC and PDP for clear date terms on restitution.
Delimitation and Representation: The report on reorganization of seats by the commission had already entered the courts. The PDP and NC have complained of gerrymandering and down grading Kashmir’s representation.[11] Jammu, with BJP-leaning voters, comes out better at six additional members, while Kashmir, by gaining merely one, is feared to be at a political disadvantage.
The other set of legal changes was in the voting rights of non-permanent residents, who are now very close to becoming the new demographics of migrants from the rest of India. The change was highly contentious for some political leaders who raised their concerns over dilution in the democratic and political composition of the region.[12]
Policy Shifts and the Role of Central Government
The political future of Jammu and Kashmir hangs precariously in the balance. At no time was the role of the central government more significant than in determining these matters. Since 2019, the regional administration has operationalised all policies relating to security, infrastructure development and economic reforms directly under central administration[13]
01.Insecurity Issues: The region remains insecure due to frequent incidents of militancy. The approach of the central government has therefore been to maintain a good security presence while developing the region. However, this approach has been criticized by some local leaders, who deem it as militarizing the region while stifling political freedom.[14]
02.Development policies: The central government’s prime narrative in the post-abrogation scenario would be that Article 370 has been abolished and is opening up greater space for more rapid economic development of Jammu and Kashmir. Under its banner of Back to Village, industrial investments, and infrastructural projects have commenced, and elections would serve as a referendum on the thrust in these policy initiatives, which are being shouted from the roof tops by the BJP during campaign mobilization.[15]
03.Tourism and Employment: Tourism is one of the most prominent industries in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. But the current security situation and COVID-19 infection have hit tourism badly. Revival of tourism and attracting investment in the sector is something the government has been interested in. Employment in such a scenario is the big grey area; hence promises of creating jobs are going to be an important aspect in election manifestos.[16]
President’s Rule: Continuance and Impact
The postponement has kept Jammu and Kashmir under President’s Rule since 2019, giving rise to concerns over power concentration in the hands of the central government. President’s Rule is that constitutional mechanism whereby the central government assumes administration in a state or Union Territory if it is unable to constitute a government. In the case of Jammu and Kashmir, this has persisted for over four years and the elections now will mark a water-shed moment for redressing democratic governance.[17]
01.Restore Statehood: It would be an election issue wherein the central government promises to restore statehood. The political parties Effects of President’s Rule have been mixed. While it has stood as a guarantee for a certain degree of stability, central oversight allows for direct schemes of development and security measures. However, it poses problems over the erosion of local democratic institutions as prolonged central rule undermines the autonomy and political voice of the region.
As the election campaigns gain momentum, a lot of election issues would come across to decide the voter preferences, have to clarify if the statehood is restored when, or in what way it might occur.[18]
02.Security and Stability: Security is another factor that would come into the consideration of the voters in which they would raise their concerns over the security situation in the region. The militancy and cross-border tensions are being faced by the central government, which could become a debated issue.
03.Development and Employment: The message would probably emphasize development projects. These would create employment, especially in tourism and infrastructure. [19]The attitude and response of parties toward unemployment and poverty, as well as the region’s economic future, will be more concerned.
This is, however, where the Delimitation Commission is up for increasing Jammu representation and is a prospect that will again throw the Kashmir vs Jammu dynamic under the spotlight. The state has a large portion of its population Hindus and is more likely to gravitate towards the BJP. Kashmir, on the other hand, remains more inclined towards regional parties due to a Muslim majority.[20]
Conclusion
The elections of 2024 to Jammu and Kashmir are going to mark a watershed moment in the history of the region. [21]Significantly, these elections are not only important for the province of Jammu and Kashmir but also throw up implications for India’s wider democratic framework, especially at a time when the legal framework is quite unique, the role of the government central, and contentious political issues like statehood and security are on everyone’s mind[22]. Only in the very near future will it be known whether these elections can help usher back political stability or add to the divisions. However, the outcome will also reveal how the denizens of Jammu and Kashmir view changes the abolition of Article 370 has brought into their lives an
[1] Ashish Ranjan, Jammu and Kashmir Election Results 2024: NC-Congress Alliance Wins Majority, BJP Strong in Jammu, Frontline (2024), https://frontline.thehindu.com/politics/jammu-kashmir-assembly-election-2024-results-nc-alliance-wins-majority-bjp-strong-jammu-regional-divide/article68746524.ece (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[2] 2 years without Article 370: How it changed Jammu and Kashmir, 5 points, India Today (2021), https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jammu-kashmir-article-370-things-changed-years-two-august-1837070-2021-08-05 (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[3] Article 370: India Supreme Court upholds repeal of Kashmir’s special status, Dec. 11, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67634689 (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[4] Day-to-day Supreme Court hearings from Aug 2: The issues in challenge to Centre’s 2019 Jammu & Kashmir decisions, The Indian Express (Jul. 11, 2023), https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-law/challenge-to-jk-changes-8825137/ (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[5] M. Mohsin Alam Bhat, Governing Democracy Outside the Law: India’s Election Commission and the Challenge of Accountability, 16 Asian Journal of Comparative Law S85 (2021), https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/asian-journal-of-comparative-law/article/governing-democracy-outside-the-law-indias-election-commission-and-the-challenge-of-accountability/85D606E872CE3FD16077C2170621196D (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[6] How are geopolitical risks affecting the world economy? Economics Observatory, https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-are-geopolitical-risks-affecting-the-world-economy (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[7] Sumeda, The Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation Report, The Hindu, May 9, 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/the-jammu-and-kashmir-delimitation-report/article65394233.ece (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[8] admin, New Political Fronts in Jammu & Kashmir Struggle to Make Impact – Kashmir Times (Since 1954): Multi-Media Web News Platform., (2024), https://kashmirtimes.com/new-political-fronts-in-jammu-kashmir-struggle-to-make-impact/, https://kashmirtimes.com/new-political-fronts-in-jammu-kashmir-struggle-to-make-impact/ (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[9] Explained: The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, and why it has become a bone of contention in the delimitation process, Financialexpress (Jul. 16, 2021), https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/explained-the-jammu-and-kashmir-reorganisation-act-2019-and-why-it-has-become-a-bone-of-contention-in-the-delimitation-process/2291836/ (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[10] Application filed in India Supreme Court seeking expedited restoration of Jammu and Kashmir statehood, (2024), https://www.jurist.org/news/2024/10/application-filed-in-india-supreme-court-seeking-expedited-restoration-of-jammu-and-kashmir-statehood/ (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[11] Understanding the Delimitation Exercise – Civilsdaily, (Feb. 7, 2024), https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/understanding-the-delimitation-exercise/ (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[12] Sharan Setty, Ram Madhav’s Return: What’s Behind BJP Leaning On RSS Veteran For Critical J&K Assembly Election, Swarajya by Kovai Media Private Limited, https://swarajyamag.com/politics/ram-madhavs-return-whats-behind-bjp-leaning-on-rss-veteran-for-critical-jk-assembly-election (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[13] Jammu and Kashmir: Surge in attacks brings fear to calmer parts of Himalayan territory, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c728l7n57n7o (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[14] The mirage of peace and prosperity in Kashmir, The Economist, https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/01/10/the-mirage-of-peace-and-prosperity-in-kashmir (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[15] India’s Kashmir Conundrum: Before and After the Abrogation of Article 370, United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/indias-kashmir-conundrum-and-after-abrogation-article-370 (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[16] Department of Tourism, Jammu and Kashmir, https://jandktourism.jk.gov.in/index.html (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[17] President’s rule revoked in J&K after almost 6 years, stage set for Omar Abdullah’s government, The Times of India, Oct. 13, 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/presidents-rule-revoked-in-jk-after-almost-6-years-stage-set-for-omar-abdullahs-government/articleshow/114195112.cms (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[18] Helen Regan Mogul Rhea, The World’s Biggest Election Explained, CNN (2024), https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/12/india/india-general-election-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[19] Guest Author and Cindy Cohn, Election Security: When to Worry, When to Not, Electronic Frontier Foundation (2024), https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/10/election-security-when-worry-when-not (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[20] Poverty, Inequality and Social Policy | United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, https://www.uneca.org/poverty-inequality-and-social-policy (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[21] Al Jazeera Staff, Kashmir Elections 2024: Who’s in the Fray and What’s at Stake?, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/kashmir-elections-2024-whos-in-the-fray-and-whats-at-stake (last visited Oct 15, 2024).
[22] The Kashmir story is much bigger than BJP’s fortunes, India Today (2024), https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/assembly/story/jammu-and-kashmir-assembly-election-2024-bjp-loss-jknc-congress-victory-meaning-for-naya-kashmir-omar-abdullah-2614024-2024-10-11 (last visited Oct 15, 2024).